Acid Test: IEA Warns Copper Supply Outlook Has Worsened Considerably

Kamoa CapitalThe Drill DownFriday 17 July 2026
 
Presented ByTerra MetalsASX: TM1
 
Building a world leading PGM asset – MST Access $1.05 valuationTerra Metals’ Dante Project hosts large-scale Bushveld-style copper-PGE sulfide reefs just 15km from BHP’s $1.7Bn Nebo-Babel development. With world-class polymetallic mineralisation from surface and strong metallurgical outcomes, Dante is rapidly emerging as Australia’s next major PGM system.Download Full Report
 
Lead InsightAcid Test: IEA Warns Copper Supply Outlook Has Worsened ConsiderablyThe IEA’s Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 lands with copper at record highs and benchmark smelter treatment charges at zero dollars a tonne, the lowest on record. Investment across critical minerals fell 9% in 2025, while supply concentration deepened again in refining.

Our TakeTreatment charges at zero mean smelters are bidding to nothing for concentrate that does not exist yet. Investment falling 9% into that is how a decade-long deficit gets built.
 
Commodity Prices

Precious Metals (USD/toz)

Gold $3,976-2.08%
Silver $56-3.89%
Platinum $1,623-3.10%
Palladium $1,250-4.74%
Base Metals & Commodities

Copper USD/t $13912.33-1.52%
Nickel USD/t $17090.00+1.74%
Zinc USD/t $3553.94+0.79%
Lead USD/t $1865.80+1.00%
WTI Crude USD/bbl $79.65+0.10%

Prices updated as of 17 July 2026, 8:03 am AEST

 
Market MoversWinners & Losers – Canadian Markets

Top Gainers (Canadian)
CCMM +19.20%

Coyote Copper Mines Inc.No announcement accompanied the move on heavy volume. The 58 square kilometre Copper Springs project sits in Arizona’s Copper Triangle and abuts Rio Tinto’s Resolution claims, where a US$500 million drilling campaign has started near the boundary.

BKM +12.80%

Pacific Booker Minerals Inc.Pacific Booker closed a $4 million placement at $2.15 a unit to fund a new economic assessment at the Morrison copper-gold project in British Columbia. Financing risk clears as the strategic review continues, after American Eagle’s hostile bid was terminated last month.

W +9.30%

Spartan Metals Corp.Spartan expanded the footprint at the past-producing Tungstonia mine in Nevada more than 13-fold in a year, defining eight tungsten-silver veins across roughly 5.7 square kilometres with samples up to 5.18% tungsten trioxide. Around half the claims remain unexplored, with drilling due in August.

 
Top Losers (Canadian)
MSV -18.40%

Minco Silver CorporationNo announcement accompanied the fall at the holder of a 90% interest in the Fuwan silver project in China’s Guangdong Province. The stock ran hard on the silver bid earlier this week and has given all of it back, a round trip on profit-taking.

MGG -15.90%

Minaurum Silver Inc.Minaurum sold off with the silver names despite engaging SGS this week to update the resource at Alamos in Sonora, Mexico, where a January estimate outlined 55.2Moz silver equivalent. A 50,000m campaign runs toward that update later this year.

BRVO -13.90%

Bravo Mining Corp.No announcement drove the fall, which takes the stock through its 52-week low despite results ten days ago of 51m at 3.67 g/t palladium, platinum and gold at Luanga in Brazil’s Carajas. A prefeasibility study is still due this quarter.

Market data as of 17 July 2026, 9:30 AM AEST

 
This Week’s PollWhich Best Describes You?

○   Retail investor

○   High-net-worth investor

○   Fund manager

○   Broker / Adviser

○   Government / Institution

 
Presented ByProspEx Group Enabling fractional mining royalty investment

register
 
Today’s Stories
ReutersChina’s Rare Earth Curbs Endanger $6.5 Trillion of Western Industry, IEA SaysFull implementation of China’s rare earth export controls could expose about $6.5 trillion of automotive, high-tech, defence and energy production to disruption, the IEA said, with the US and Europe taking nearly half the impact. Postponed graphite controls put a further $300 billion at risk.

Our TakeThe one-year delay is a countdown, not a reprieve. US and Malaysian refining has already pulled China’s share from 90% to 85%, so the lever moves when capital funds the midstream.
Binance NewsXingye Yinxi Subsidiary Plans to Subscribe for 20% of Australian TAT SharesXingye Gold (Hong Kong) has agreed to take Tartana Minerals placement shares in two batches at A$0.053, worth about A$5.18 million and 20% of the company on completion. The first batch is sized to stay just under 10%, with the balance subject to Chinese and overseas approvals.

Our TakeHolding the first tranche below 10% is a bidder reading the regulatory weather. Days after Canberra froze China-linked voting rights at Northern Minerals, how this A$5 million cheque is treated marks the line.
Mining.comCameroon Sees Mining Revenue Overtaking Oil at $1.75 Billion, Minister SaysCameroon expects mining revenue to overtake oil at around $1.75 billion as output from maturing fields declines and Yaounde pushes to develop under-exploited iron ore and bauxite. The forecast comes with a regulatory clean-up targeting illegal mining and under-declaration.

Our TakeCameroon has the geology. Whether it can hold permits stable long enough for iron ore capital to fund rail and port decides if $1.75 billion is a trajectory or a target.
Metal.comFirst Quantum Considers Selling Stake in Taca Taca Copper Mine Amid Global Supply RushFirst Quantum is running an early-stage process to sell a minority stake in Taca Taca in Argentina’s Salta province, with Rio Tinto, Mitsubishi and Mitsui named among potential bidders. The project needs about US$4.2 billion of initial capital and would produce over 320,000 tonnes of copper a year at peak.

Our TakeSelling down is how a balance sheet still healing from Cobre Panama funds US$4.2 billion without asking shareholders. Three majors circling one deposit shows how thin the Tier 1 copper pipeline has become.
AFRReality Bites BHP’s Copper Boom as Volumes Set to SlumpBHP says copper production will slide by up to 15% in the year ahead, in an update that wiped $7.2 billion off its record share price rally. A mechanical failure at a South Australian mine will compound declining ore quality in Chile.

Our TakeA 15% cut at the world’s biggest miner is the supply thesis showing up in guidance rather than a forecast deck. Grade decline cannot be drilled out of an existing pit.
Kamoa Capitalkamoacap.com

LinkedIn

Instagram

This newsletter is for general information, education & entertainment. Kamoa Capital is not licensed and does not know your circumstances. Nothing here is financial, legal or tax advice. Seek professional advice and read any PDS before acting. We aim for accuracy but make no guarantees and accept no liability. Views are opinions only and may include forward-looking statements that may not occur.